# Copyright 2022 - 2026 The PyMC Labs Developers
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
"""
Base class for quasi experimental designs.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import contextlib
from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import xarray as xr
from sklearn.base import RegressorMixin
from causalpy.experiments.model_adapter import ModelAdapter, make_model_adapter
from causalpy.maketables_adapters import get_maketables_adapter
from causalpy.pymc_forecast_models import PyMCForecastModel
from causalpy.pymc_models import PyMCModel
from causalpy.reporting import EffectSummary
def _apply_legend_kwargs(legend: Any, kwargs: dict[str, Any]) -> None:
"""Mutate an existing Legend in place without recreating it.
This preserves custom handles (e.g. ``(Line2D, PolyCollection)`` tuples
built by :func:`~causalpy.plot_utils.plot_posterior_over_x` with
``kind="ribbon"``) that would be lost if the legend were rebuilt with
``ax.legend()``.
Supported keys: ``loc``, ``bbox_to_anchor``, ``bbox_transform`` (only
with ``bbox_to_anchor``), ``fontsize``, ``frameon``, ``title``.
Raises
------
TypeError
If *kwargs* contains keys that cannot be applied in place.
"""
_SUPPORTED = {
"loc",
"bbox_to_anchor",
"bbox_transform",
"fontsize",
"frameon",
"title",
}
unsupported = set(kwargs) - _SUPPORTED
if unsupported:
raise TypeError(
f"legend_kwargs keys not supported for in-place mutation: "
f"{sorted(unsupported)}. Supported keys: {sorted(_SUPPORTED)}"
)
if "bbox_transform" in kwargs and "bbox_to_anchor" not in kwargs:
raise TypeError(
"bbox_transform requires bbox_to_anchor to be specified as well"
)
if "loc" in kwargs:
loc = kwargs["loc"]
# set_loc is public in matplotlib >= 3.8; fall back to the stable
# private helper for older versions, converting string names to
# numeric codes since _set_loc may not accept strings.
if hasattr(legend, "set_loc"):
legend.set_loc(loc)
else:
if isinstance(loc, str): # pragma: no cover
loc = legend.codes.get(loc, loc)
legend._set_loc(loc) # pragma: no cover
if "bbox_to_anchor" in kwargs:
legend.set_bbox_to_anchor(
kwargs["bbox_to_anchor"], kwargs.get("bbox_transform")
)
if "fontsize" in kwargs:
for text in legend.get_texts():
text.set_fontsize(kwargs["fontsize"])
if "frameon" in kwargs:
legend.set_frame_on(kwargs["frameon"])
if "title" in kwargs:
legend.set_title(kwargs["title"])
[docs]
class BaseExperiment(ABC):
"""Base class for quasi experimental designs.
Subclasses should set ``_default_model_class`` to a PyMC model class
(e.g. ``LinearRegression``) so that ``model=None`` instantiates a sensible
Bayesian default. To use an OLS/sklearn model — or, for experiments that
declare ``supports_pymc_forecast``, a
:class:`~causalpy.pymc_forecast_models.PyMCForecastModel` — pass one
explicitly.
Parameters
----------
model : PyMCModel, RegressorMixin, PyMCForecastModel, or None, default None
Model instance to use. If ``None`` and ``_default_model_class`` is set,
an instance of that default class is constructed.
Notes
-----
Optional ``maketables`` integration is exposed through ``__maketables_*``
hooks. Users can control the HDI interval level used by
``ETable(result)`` via :meth:`set_maketables_options`, for example:
``result.set_maketables_options(hdi_prob=0.95)``.
"""
labels: list[str]
data: pd.DataFrame
supports_bayes: bool
supports_ols: bool
supports_pymc_forecast: bool = False
_default_model_class: type[PyMCModel] | None = None
@staticmethod
def _build_design_dataset(
X_raw: np.ndarray,
y_raw: np.ndarray,
*,
obs_ind: np.ndarray | pd.Index,
coeffs: list[str],
treated_units: list[str] | None = None,
) -> xr.Dataset:
"""Build a standard ``xr.Dataset`` from raw design matrices.
Parameters
----------
X_raw : np.ndarray
Predictor matrix, shape ``(n_obs, n_coeffs)``.
y_raw : np.ndarray
Outcome matrix, shape ``(n_obs, n_units)``.
obs_ind : array-like
Observation index coordinates.
coeffs : list[str]
Coefficient / column names for ``X_raw``.
treated_units : list[str], optional
Names for the treated-unit dimension of ``y_raw``.
Defaults to ``["unit_0"]``.
"""
if treated_units is None:
treated_units = ["unit_0"]
return xr.Dataset(
{
"X": xr.DataArray(
X_raw,
dims=["obs_ind", "coeffs"],
coords={"obs_ind": obs_ind, "coeffs": coeffs},
),
"y": xr.DataArray(
y_raw,
dims=["obs_ind", "treated_units"],
coords={"obs_ind": obs_ind, "treated_units": treated_units},
),
}
)
_model_backend: ModelAdapter
[docs]
def __init__(
self, model: PyMCModel | RegressorMixin | PyMCForecastModel | None = None
) -> None:
adapter = make_model_adapter(
model,
default_model_class=self._default_model_class,
supports_bayes=self.supports_bayes,
supports_ols=self.supports_ols,
supports_pymc_forecast=self.supports_pymc_forecast,
)
self._model_backend = adapter
self.model = adapter.model
@property
def idata(self) -> xr.DataTree | None:
"""Return fitted DataTree when the model backend supports it."""
return self._model_backend.idata
[docs]
def print_coefficients(self, round_to: int | None = None) -> None:
"""Ask the model to print its coefficients.
Parameters
----------
round_to : int, optional
Number of significant figures to round to. Defaults to None,
in which case 2 significant figures are used.
"""
self._model_backend.print_coefficients(self.labels, round_to)
[docs]
def set_maketables_options(self, *, hdi_prob: float | None = None) -> None:
"""Set optional maketables rendering options for this experiment.
Parameters
----------
hdi_prob : float, optional
Bayesian HDI probability used for PyMC coefficient interval columns in
``__maketables_coef_table__`` and therefore in ``ETable(result)``.
Must satisfy ``0 < hdi_prob < 1``.
Examples
--------
>>> result.set_maketables_options(hdi_prob=0.95) # doctest: +SKIP
>>> # Subsequent ETable(result) calls use 95% HDI bounds
"""
if hdi_prob is not None:
hdi_prob = float(hdi_prob)
if not 0 < hdi_prob < 1:
msg = f"hdi_prob must be in (0, 1), got {hdi_prob!r}"
raise ValueError(msg)
self._maketables_hdi_prob = hdi_prob
@property
def __maketables_coef_table__(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Optional maketables plugin hook for coefficient tables.
For PyMC-backed experiments, interval columns use the HDI probability set
by :meth:`set_maketables_options` (or backend defaults if not set).
"""
return get_maketables_adapter(self._model_backend).coef_table(self)
def __maketables_stat__(self, key: str) -> Any:
"""Optional maketables plugin hook for model-level statistics."""
return get_maketables_adapter(self._model_backend).stat(self, key)
@property
def __maketables_depvar__(self) -> str:
"""Optional maketables plugin hook for dependent variable name."""
return str(
getattr(
self,
"outcome_variable_name",
getattr(self, "outcome_variable", "y"),
)
)
@property
def __maketables_vcov_info__(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
"""Optional maketables plugin hook for variance-covariance info."""
return get_maketables_adapter(self._model_backend).vcov_info(self)
@property
def __maketables_stat_labels__(self) -> dict[str, str] | None:
"""Optional maketables plugin hook for statistic labels."""
return get_maketables_adapter(self._model_backend).stat_labels(self)
@property
def __maketables_default_stat_keys__(self) -> list[str] | None:
"""Optional maketables plugin hook for default statistic rows."""
return get_maketables_adapter(self._model_backend).default_stat_keys(self)
def _render_plot(
self,
*,
show: bool,
legend_kwargs: dict[str, Any] | None,
**draw_kwargs: Any,
) -> tuple:
"""Template Method shared by every subclass's public ``plot``.
Each :class:`BaseExperiment` subclass exposes its own explicit,
kwarg-only public ``plot()`` (issue
`#886 <https://github.com/pymc-labs/CausalPy/issues/886>`_) and
forwards the call here. This helper:
1. Applies the ``arviz-darkgrid`` style for the duration of the
draw call.
2. Calls the subclass's backend-agnostic :meth:`_plot`.
3. Mutates the resulting legend(s) in place when *legend_kwargs*
is supplied, preserving custom handles built by the subclass.
4. Optionally calls :func:`matplotlib.pyplot.show`.
``BaseExperiment`` deliberately does **not** define a public
``plot()`` method: that would inherit a generic
``*args, **kwargs`` signature into every subclass and re-introduce
the discoverability problem described in #886. Subclasses are
instead required to declare their own ``plot()`` with an explicit
keyword-only signature and call ``self._render_plot(...)``.
Parameters
----------
show : bool
Whether to call :func:`matplotlib.pyplot.show` after drawing.
legend_kwargs : dict, optional
Keyword arguments to adjust legend placement and styling. The
existing legend is modified **in place** so that custom
handles (e.g. ``(Line2D, PolyCollection)`` tuples built by
:func:`~causalpy.plot_utils.plot_posterior_over_x` with
``kind="ribbon"``) are preserved.
Supported keys: ``loc``, ``bbox_to_anchor``, ``fontsize``,
``frameon``, ``title``. ``bbox_transform`` is accepted
alongside ``bbox_to_anchor``.
**draw_kwargs
Subclass-specific drawing parameters forwarded verbatim to
``_plot``. May include ``kind``, ``ci_kind``, ``ci_prob``, and
``num_samples`` for
:func:`~causalpy.plot_utils.plot_posterior_over_x`.
Notes
-----
**Legend handling and ``plot_posterior_over_x`` return types:** :func:`~causalpy.plot_utils.plot_posterior_over_x`
returns ``(Line2D, PolyCollection)`` for ``kind="ribbon"`` but
``(list[Line2D], None)`` for ``kind="histogram"`` or ``"spaghetti"``.
Subclass ``_plot`` implementations that assemble
matplotlib legends from those return values should only pack
``(line, patch)`` tuples when calling ``plot_posterior_over_x`` with ``kind="ribbon"``
(the default). Many current experiment plots always use the ribbon
default and never forward ``kind``; if a subclass forwards non-ribbon
kinds, it must build legend handles accordingly. The base class applies
``legend_kwargs`` by mutating an existing legend in place, which preserves
whatever handle objects the subclass attached (including tuple handles
used for ribbon mean+band).
Examples
--------
Move the legend outside the plot area to avoid overlap:
>>> fig, ax = result.plot( # doctest: +SKIP
... show=False,
... legend_kwargs={"loc": "upper left", "bbox_to_anchor": (1.04, 1)},
... )
"""
with plt.style.context("arviz-darkgrid"):
fig, ax = self._plot(**draw_kwargs)
# Apply legend customization if requested. We mutate the existing
# Legend object in place so that custom handles — especially the
# (Line2D, PolyCollection) tuples built by plot_posterior_over_x with
# kind="ribbon" — are preserved
# exactly as the subclass created them.
if legend_kwargs is not None:
# Normalise ax to a flat list so we can iterate uniformly.
if hasattr(ax, "flat"):
axes = list(ax.flat)
elif isinstance(ax, list):
axes = ax
else:
axes = [ax]
for a in axes:
legend = a.get_legend()
if legend is not None:
_apply_legend_kwargs(legend, legend_kwargs)
# Recompute layout when the legend is placed outside the axes
# so it is not clipped (some subclass plots already call
# tight_layout before we get here).
if "bbox_to_anchor" in legend_kwargs:
fig.tight_layout()
if show:
plt.show()
return fig, ax
def _plot(self, **kwargs: Any) -> tuple:
"""Draw the experiment figure; called by :meth:`_render_plot`.
Subclasses implement a single backend-agnostic ``_plot`` that consumes
the canonical prediction container. Uncertainty rendering should key
on data properties (e.g.
:func:`~causalpy.utils.has_posterior_draws`), not backend
identity.
"""
raise NotImplementedError("_plot method not yet implemented")
[docs]
@abstractmethod
def effect_summary(self) -> EffectSummary:
"""Generate a decision-ready summary of causal effects.
Concrete experiments declare only the keyword-only parameters that
their own effect-summary implementation supports.
Returns
-------
EffectSummary
Object with ``.table`` (DataFrame) and ``.text`` (str) attributes.
"""
raise NotImplementedError("effect_summary method not yet implemented")
[docs]
def generate_report(
self,
*,
include_plots: bool = True,
include_effect_summary: bool = True,
output_file: str | Path | None = None,
) -> str:
"""Generate a self-contained HTML report for this experiment.
This is a convenience wrapper around
:class:`~causalpy.steps.report.GenerateReport` that does not require
a full pipeline.
Parameters
----------
include_plots : bool, default True
Embed diagnostic plots in the report.
include_effect_summary : bool, default True
Include the effect-summary section.
output_file : str or Path, optional
If provided, write the HTML report to this path.
Returns
-------
str
The rendered HTML report.
"""
from causalpy.pipeline import PipelineContext
from causalpy.steps.report import GenerateReport
ctx = PipelineContext(data=self.data)
ctx.experiment = self
if include_effect_summary:
with contextlib.suppress(Exception):
ctx.effect_summary = self.effect_summary()
step = GenerateReport(
include_plots=include_plots,
include_effect_summary=include_effect_summary,
include_sensitivity=False,
output_file=output_file,
)
step.run(ctx)
return ctx.report
